Salem Alketbi

Calculations in the Gaza conflict

الثلاثاء - 01 يونيو 2021

Tue - 01 Jun 2021

A real tragedy is when the blood and suffering of have no weight in the calculations of radical organizations, groups and regimes, both in the Middle East and around the world. When I talk here about terrorist organizations like Hamas, Lebanese Hezbollah, PIJ or other armed organizations, I feel like I am stepping into a minefield.




But I find that meaningful debate is inevitable as long as silence can mean more trouble, bloodshed and destruction. Since the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas went into effect in the Gaza Strip, both sides have been talking about a military victory.




Social networks have been flooded with tweets and hashtags referring to the victory of Gaza or Palestine. The same thing naturally on the other side. A recurring scene reminiscent of the 2006 Lebanon war between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah, a legacy of that bloody war with infrastructural disasters that Lebanon continues to suffer the consequences.




Yet, at the time, the party set the criteria for victory and defeat by implicitly considering that its leader’s escape from Israeli strikes was a victory, regardless of human and material losses.




I don’t want to compare or project that onto the Gaza scene so that some won’t accuse me of “failing the resistance,” “submission,” “normalization” and other prefabricated charges ignoring rational calculations in such circumstances.




I’m not a fan of fishing in troubled waters or trying to deflect attention from the achievements of both sides, Palestinian and Israeli. In fact, it’s still a moot point unless both sides in the turmoil take a step forward by reaching a lasting peace agreement.




Talking about profits and losses in any crisis depends on the relative weight of each factor affecting that crisis. Sparing material, human and even psychological losses and saying that reconstruction can heal the wounds makes no sense. It is also hard to deny that the Israeli side’s status as a major regional power has faded in this confrontation.




According to abstract physical and numerical calculations, Israel already appears to have won a victory. But in unconventional confrontations between organizations and states, the calculations do not depend on abstract numbers. There are some rather special calculations.




In such battles, the objective has never been achieved by a regular army, even if it is the army of the world’s only superpower. Everyone knows how the image of the US military has been damaged by isolated confrontations with militias in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere. Unconventional confrontations have unconventional calculations.




There are no winners and losers. Each side sets its own rules. Militias and armed organizations are not like countries. They have no obligations. And they are not subject to popular and official accountability, either internally or externally. Nor do they take into account the extent of material and human losses.




There is no concern for the dead and wounded because they have a sacrifici