Pivotal moments in the Ukraine war

A significant qualitative development in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine surprised the world.

This development refers to the sudden incursion carried out by Ukrainian forces into the Russian city of Kursk, marking the transition of the conflict into Russian territory.

It has been described as the first invasion of Russian lands by foreign forces since World War II.

According to the Russian narrative, about 12,000 Ukrainian soldiers crossed the border and occupied territories about six miles deep inside Russia.

This is a complete reversal in the direction of the war, which had kept Ukraine in a defensive position since its beginning, except for a few periods when it shifted from defense to offense within its borders.

This time, however, the attack took place inside the Russian Federation itself.

President Zelensky’s decision to breach Russian borders is the most dangerous of its kind since the war began. Despite its limited military significance, it carries important strategic dimensions, some of which relate to Russia’s prestige and national pride, directly affecting the dignity of President Putin, who constantly reiterates his keenness to restore Russia’s role and influence in the world.

This Ukrainian military breach has brought the crisis back to the forefront after it had receded from the spotlight and international attention.

It had even disappeared from the statements of Western leaders themselves, who were preoccupied with following developments in the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip.

This is not only due to Israel’s importance to these leaders and their electoral calculations but also because they found in this war what they were looking for after all their plans to achieve a military victory over Russia had failed.

The Gaza war has become a lifeline for some Western leaders who long promoted the idea of defeating Russia in Ukraine.

The returns from the Ukrainian movement will likely be limited to tactical gains such as renewing confidence among Ukrainians, reminding the world of their war with Russia, and regaining the momentum that had dissipated due to the prolonged war and the failure of either side to resolve it militarily.

This is in addition to the failure of repeatedly proposed political solutions and the decline in Western material and military support for Ukraine for various reasons, despite previous promises to continue supporting Kyiv at any cost.

The Ukraine war has turned into a quagmire for both sides, becoming a war of attrition with high material, human, and strategic costs.

President Putin’s accusation of NATO standing behind and even participating in the recent Ukrainian breach could be the beginning of a new chapter in this bloody conflict.

What happened actually is a diminution of Russia’s status and position as a great nuclear power, also the same reason that makes Russia think carefully before responding to this breach, to avoid being drawn into a major war that may not be in its interest, at least at the present time.

At this timing and striking synchronization between the positions of Russia and Iran and their crises in responding to what they consider national insults, we find the world actually standing on a dangerous edge.

However, I do not see it carrying the genes of a third world war that neither side may desire, given the scale of expected losses and the high cost they would bear if such a war broke out.

But this analysis does not negate the big difference in the personalities of the Russian and Iranian leaderships, meaning that President Putin may be much more inclined to severe, carefully calculated revenge in response to the Ukrainian breach.

This is especially so as he fully realizes that NATO countries will refrain from expanding the scope of the war during this period, either to avoid expanding the war to include all of Europe, or because of the US’ preoccupation with presidential elections and the difficulty of adopting any heavy-caliber decision to defend European security, not to mention Washington’s great focus during this period on protecting Israel in the face of threats from Iran and its proxies in the Middle East.

What also tips the balance in favor of Russian retaliation is the size of the Ukrainian breach. What happened is not an assassination of a political figure, no matter how important, on Russian soil as happened in the Iranian case, but an invasion and occupation of a not insignificant area of Russian territory.

President Zelensky said it is estimated at about 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory, with control over 28 residential areas and the flight of about 200,000 Russians from their homes according to a Russian official.

This has led Kyiv to talk about the possibility of imposing military rule in the Russian Kursk region, which prompted President Putin to promise a “fitting response” to Ukraine, given the political and strategic significance of what happened regardless of the geographical area that the Ukrainian army managed to breach.

This is in light of the impact of the operation itself on the Russian interior and the general sense of security, especially as the Ukrainian army’s breach brings back to the Russian collective memory the recent breach carried out by the Wagner militias about a year ago, when they claimed to reach a distance of 120 miles from the capital Moscow.

There are expectations that the Ukrainian counter-attack will strengthen Kyiv’s position in any potential peace negotiations. However, it is hard to definitively predict the likelihood of any peace negotiations taking place at all before Russia implements what it believes to be a response to its national pride.

This attack might even push Russia towards more political intransigence and expansion of the circle of fighting deep into Ukraine, perhaps ending the idea of political dialogue altogether, or at least until after the US presidential elections. However, we cannot build accurate expectations about the position of Russian forces in Ukraine after this Ukrainian breach, where Ukrainian drones play a key role in pursuing the Russian army, and Russian focus shifts towards defending borders and preventing the recurrence of these breaches.

Perhaps this was the goal of planning the breach - to distract the Russian army and push it to redeploy and withdraw forces from the Ukrainian areas it controls and seeks to consolidate Russian presence in.

In any case, it seems that the Ukrainian-Russian war will witness a bloodier chapter in the coming stage.