Will Russia’s bet on wearing out the West pay off?

The debate about faltering Western support for Ukraine in its war against Russia has recently snowballed. Case in point, EU foreign ministers issued a notable warning to Russia about not relying on “weariness” in Europe regarding the support directed to Ukraine. The most attention-grabbing event was the meeting of European ministers in Kyiv for the first time held outside the EU, and the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, described the war in Ukraine as an “existential threat” to the EU specifically, telling the Ukrainian side, “And that’s why we have to continue supporting you and discussing with our American allies and friends for them to continue supporting you.”

In quantitative terms, the level of European support for Ukraine has not taken a quantum leap. The EU recently announced the provision of over 70 billion euros in the form of military and civilian aid to Ukraine, with these aids scheduled to arrive in the coming few years. French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna sought to “give Russia the message that it shouldn’t count on our weariness; we will be there for a long time.”

This European show of support comes on the heels of the exclusion of 6 billion dollars in military aid to Ukraine from the hard-fought US budget, prompting President Biden to stress that Kyiv could continue to rely on American support.

The suggestion of Western weariness was first voiced by Kremlin officials who believed that Europe and the US would grow war-weary and that the Washington would continue to be directly involved in the crisis. This partly explains the decisive message that EU foreign ministers sought to send from Kyiv.

The evidence suggests that the Western alignment is no longer as certain as it was at the beginning of the war. The strong opposition of the far-right Republicans in the US to the Biden administration’s position on the war cannot be ignored. Attention must also be paid to the victory of the Russia-friendly candidate in the recent parliamentary elections in Slovakia, where Robert Fico, a former prime minister, is expected to begin coalition consultations to form the next government, having previously explicitly pledged to halt Slovakia’s military support for Ukraine.

The results of these elections are not limited to Slovakia. In Poland, electoral competition is intensifying and revolves around support for Ukraine as well. This makes continued European unity in the Ukraine crisis uncertain, despite strong unprecedented British support received by Ukraine through transfer of an official training program led by Britain, Operation Interflex, into Ukraine instead of military bases belonging to some NATO countries.

Aside from official European responses, will Russian gamble on Western exhaustion work out? The answer would depend on whether there is an undeniable sense of disaffection among European countries, with the Slovak situation likely to spread or at least influence the positions of other EU members.

Politico described the victory of the Slovak Democratic Socialists, led by Robert Fico, as a danger spreading across Europe because it serves as an indicator of the erosion of Western support for Ukraine. This situation could escalate amid a military stalemate, despite the depletion of Western arms and ammunition stocks.

Although the coalition government to be formed by Fico may lean towards a pragmatic approach to Ukraine, this could also represent a sharp shift in positions. Slovakia was the second country, after Poland, to provide fighter jets to Ukraine, increasing the pressure on the Ukrainian president to ensure continued support. It also puts pressure on other Western capitals to maintain popular support for their positions on Ukraine, given the growing front of opposition or at least neutrality in the face of war in Ukraine, which now includes Hungary, Serbia, Poland and Slovakia.

This undoubtedly weakens the cohesion of the EU in its stance against Russia. This situation is likely to intensify with parliamentary elections in many countries next year, and the electoral domino effect here is likely to be repeated in these countries, which will undoubtedly affect the positions of the current governments. Political leaders fear shifting voter preferences and growing concern over reports that European economies have been hit harder by the war than the Russian economy.

These developments prompted Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani to describe possible plans by the new Slovak government as “not a positive message.” Pointing to possible European divisions over Ukraine, he said: “let’s see what Fico will actually do, beyond the announcements, because the government has not yet taken office.” He added that the conflict in Ukraine had reached a stage where it was necessary to find a way to peace.

To sum up, the general direction of the West is in line with President Putin’s expectations and his gamble on the West’s division with regard to support for Ukraine. The time is ripe to end the state of unity, given the growing economic pressures and the electoral factor influencing European politicians and parties. This is likely to intensify as winter approaches and Ukraine’s need for arms grows.

But does the West risk sacrificing all the billions it has given to Ukraine, not to mention the potential strategic implications of its military defeat for security, stability and the balance of power with Russia? The answer is likely to be that there is a high probability of a rift within European ranks. On the other hand, the US may have no strategic alternative but to continue supporting Ukraine while pushing for a political solution to the crisis.

Nevertheless, Congress’ position on excluding Ukraine from the short-term spending bill remains a relevant indicator with its implications, even if it is a temporary measure to avoid a government shutdown, especially as electoral pressure could somewhat influence President Biden’s positions. He mentioned Ukraine towards the end of his recent speech to the UN General Assembly, which explains the statement by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who said, “In Congress, yes, there are some loud voices that are taking a different tack. But if you look at the majority in both parties, the support is there and it’s sustained.”