Global concern over China’s worst-case scenario

The coronavirus epidemic, with its significant human casualties and enormous economic impact, is undoubtedly marking a dividing line between two distinct phases. The period before the epidemic is not comparable to what’s after. Many circumstances and facts have changed.

It can even be said that many geopolitical and strategic concepts have been reshaped. A catastrophic scenario, called a black swan in political literature, has occurred. What many feared has come to pass.

But for a very different reason. The global earthquake was not caused by a severe financial crisis, a third world war, or even climate change going beyond scientific expectations. Rather, it was prompted by a virus, the causes of which are not yet known, at least not officially, nor are the limits of responsibility for this catastrophic outbreak.

What happened in the epidemic is an actual application of the “black swan” theory described by the Lebanese-American thinker Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his famous 2007 book on unexpected events that occur suddenly and whose effects and consequences are far-reaching.

The coronavirus epidemic is already a good living example of the Black Swan, as were the attacks of September 11, 2001, and other global events exceeding expectations. This catastrophic scenario is changing the world order, experts and specialists in international relations agree.

In the past few months, numerous strategic studies and researches have been carried out dealing with the patterns of power, influence and dominance in the post-coronavirus world as linked to the position of the US as the dominant pole of the existing world order and with China as the top contender to compete with the US.

Discussions about China’s position in the next phase were not limited to closed rooms, research halls and scientific conferences, but involved tens of millions of people around the world who follow the Chinese rise and its impact on almost every detail of the average person’s daily life. A picture of China’s global influence was painted, however unintentionally.

In a recent official statement, the Chinese government called on the population to stockpile food reserves for daily needs and emergencies. The reason for this call was left untold. This opened the door to a flood of interpretations, analyses and fears. Some media outlets have limited fears and speculations surrounding the Chinese statement to the Arab region.

But anyone who has followed the world’s media in recent days knows that the call has had the same impact in both East and West. It’s just not the Arab region that is concerned. As for the motives of this call, the Chinese authorities have learned a lot from the crisis of the first outbreak of the coronavirus and the massive lockdowns and losses it has caused.

China is keen to avoid a repeat of this scenario ahead of the Beijing Winter Olympics in February next year, amid new outbreaks in different parts of China. That being said, such calls are by no means uncommon in a country that ranks first in the world in food imports. Ingrained in its historical memory are times of painful famine it wouldn’t want to relive.

Last year, Chinese President Xi Jinping called on his countrymen to save food and not waste it, but this time the call seems understandable in its historical and analytical context. China wants to demonstrate its soft power at the upcoming Winter Olympics, not to let the international presence at these games be an occasion to put this emerging world power in a cold sweat.

China has undoubtedly been at the center of global attention since the outbreak of the coronavirus, whether because of the accusations of being responsible for the global outbreak in 2019 from Wuhan, or because of its role, weight and scope of economic influence on the global economy in this crisis.

This impact was a clear indication of the extent of global strategic influence Chinese power is wielding in the post-Covid world. It used to be said that when America sneezes, the world catches a cold. Today, it is clear that China’s “sneeze” could give the world more than just a cold.

Price indexes for commodities and services are heading for record highs, and expectations for inflation, recession, and the global economy in general seem very pessimistic for at least the next two years. All news streams link all events to what is happening in China, or point to China playing an important role in world events.

The world is holding its breath, not for fear of a new wave of the Covid-19 epidemic.

But the deepening crisis in China’s real estate sector, which accounts for about 30% of China’s GDP, and a major Lehman Brothers-type crisis could lead to a tsunami that devastates all the world’s stock markets and a massive wave of inflation triggered by the financial collapse of the world’s most important factory.

The coronavirus epidemic, with its significant human casualties and enormous economic impact, is undoubtedly marking a dividing line between two distinct phases. The period before the epidemic is not comparable to what’s after. Many circumstances and facts have changed.

It can even be said that many geopolitical and strategic concepts have been reshaped. A catastrophic scenario, called a black swan in political literature, has occurred. What many feared has come to pass.

But for a very different reason. The global earthquake was not caused by a severe financial crisis, a third world war, or even climate change going beyond scientific expectations. Rather, it was prompted by a virus, the causes of which are not yet known, at least not officially, nor are the limits of responsibility for this catastrophic outbreak.

What happened in the epidemic is an actual application of the “black swan” theory described by the Lebanese-American thinker Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his famous 2007 book on unexpected events that occur suddenly and whose effects and consequences are far-reaching.

The coronavirus epidemic is already a good living example of the Black Swan, as were the attacks of September 11, 2001, and other global events exceeding expectations. This catastrophic scenario is changing the world order, experts and specialists in international relations agree.

In the past few months, numerous strategic studies and researches have been carried out dealing with the patterns of power, influence and dominance in the post-coronavirus world as linked to the position of the US as the dominant pole of the existing world order and with China as the top contender to compete with the US.

Discussions about China’s position in the next phase were not limited to closed rooms, research halls and scientific conferences, but involved tens of millions of people around the world who follow the Chinese rise and its impact on almost every detail of the average person’s daily life. A picture of China’s global influence was painted, however unintentionally.

In a recent official statement, the Chinese government called on the population to stockpile food reserves for daily needs and emergencies. The reason for this call was left untold. This opened the door to a flood of interpretations, analyses and fears. Some media outlets have limited fears and speculations surrounding the Chinese statement to the Arab region.

But anyone who has followed the world’s media in recent days knows that the call has had the same impact in both East and West. It’s just not the Arab region that is concerned. As for the motives of this call, the Chinese authorities have learned a lot from the crisis of the first outbreak of the coronavirus and the massive lockdowns and losses it has caused.

China is keen to avoid a repeat of this scenario ahead of the Beijing Winter Olympics in February next year, amid new outbreaks in different parts of China. That being said, such calls are by no means uncommon in a country that ranks first in the world in food imports. Ingrained in its historical memory are times of painful famine it wouldn’t want to relive.

Last year, Chinese President Xi Jinping called on his countrymen to save food and not waste it, but this time the call seems understandable in its historical and analytical context. China wants to demonstrate its soft power at the upcoming Winter Olympics, not to let the international presence at these games be an occasion to put this emerging world power in a cold sweat.

China has undoubtedly been at the center of global attention since the outbreak of the coronavirus, whether because of the accusations of being responsible for the global outbreak in 2019 from Wuhan, or because of its role, weight and scope of economic influence on the global economy in this crisis.

This impact was a clear indication of the extent of global strategic influence Chinese power is wielding in the post-Covid world. It used to be said that when America sneezes, the world catches a cold. Today, it is clear that China’s “sneeze” could give the world more than just a cold.

Price indexes for commodities and services are heading for record highs, and expectations for inflation, recession, and the global economy in general seem very pessimistic for at least the next two years. All news streams link all events to what is happening in China, or point to China playing an important role in world events.

The world is holding its breath, not for fear of a new wave of the Covid-19 epidemic.

But the deepening crisis in China’s real estate sector, which accounts for about 30% of China’s GDP, and a major Lehman Brothers-type crisis could lead to a tsunami that devastates all the world’s stock markets and a massive wave of inflation triggered by the financial collapse of the world’s most important factory.