The end of the war in Ukraine

Recently, American commentator Tucker Carlson, who interviewed Russian President Vladimir Putin, noted that Western journalists had not made an effort to meet with Putin. He described the interview as the first that Western media had conducted since the conflict in Ukraine began almost two years ago.

This was in contrast to the media, which had always defended the public’s right to information and access to all points of view. Interviews with President Putin might not have solved the conflict in Ukraine, but they could have bridged the gap and helped to sensitize the Western public to the causes, roots and alternatives of the crisis.

However, the Russian perspective was completely ignored while the West rushed to provide financial and military support to Ukraine. Subsequently, however, this support gradually waned, leading to a split in the positions of European countries regarding support for Kiev and the military or political management of the crisis.

The Gaza crisis and the escalating situation in the Middle East diverted attention away from the political and media aspects of the Ukraine conflict.

This mirrors the situation with other regional and international crises, as the Middle East issue is of central importance globally, especially as Israel, of strategic value to Western allies, particularly the US, plays a major role in the Gaza conflict, which has spilled over into other regional zones.

The fact that the Ukraine issue is not at the forefront of events and is not a top priority is only natural given its length and the lack of media events, as the crisis has come to a standstill on the ground. The military and combat situation has become virtually static as neither side has achieved a decisive operational breakthrough.

Clashes have been reduced to firefights that have done little to resolve the status quo between the two warring parties. American commentator Candace Owens recently urged the West to listen to the Russian president and consider his statements about the causes of the conflict in Ukraine.

She said: “No serious person can discuss the events in this region without taking into account the eastward expansion of NATO, taking place contrary to the promises of our government representatives.”

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin echoed this view, stating that the US and the EU are ignoring Russian demands for a solution to the crisis and are merely trying to inflict a strategic defeat on Moscow.

This fuzzy scenario and its interpretations can be understood through the developments in which Western experts suggest that President Biden wants to postpone the war in Ukraine until after the US presidential elections in November.

Biden may not want to change his support for Ukraine until then, especially given other difficult obstacles related to the Gaza crisis and its direct impact on US interests in the Middle East. Some argue that Russia has resolved the situation militarily in its favor, but it is difficult for the West to acknowledge this operational reality.

Therefore, apart from the likelihood of a sudden collapse of the Ukrainian army, one possible way out of the crisis could be the replacement of key figures who have managed the situation from the beginning, be it Ukrainian President Zelenski or US President Biden, who has been criticized for his proposed $60 billion aid package for Ukraine.

The White House is aware that an end to US support would lead to a rapid decline in support from other Western and especially Eastern European countries. The deputy chairman of the Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence in the Ukrainian parliament, Jehor Chernev, confirmed the critical situation of the Ukrainian armed forces due to a lack of ammunition.

He emphasized that Kiev will not give up and pointed out the need to find alternative ways to supply Ukraine with weapons. He emphasized the need for greater support from the EU, which understands the challenges facing the US. There are also signs that weaken Ukraine’s position, not only on the battlefield, but also in the erosion and possibly change of Western support.

Polish President Andrzej Duda’s recent statements on the situation in the Crimean peninsula, in which he acknowledged its historical connection to Russia, sparked anger in Kiev. Some Polish politicians even suggested that some Ukrainian regions historically belonged to Poland. Similar insinuations are circulating in Hungarian and Romanian media, indicating a desire for the division of Ukraine.

Some Western analysts believe that without new US aid, Ukraine may be forced to accept the peace terms proposed by the Kremlin. These terms include recognition of Russia’s sovereignty over the newly controlled territories and a commitment by Ukraine to remain neutral between Russia and NATO.

This would mean that Ukraine would lose a significant part of its territory, which would have major strategic implications for relations with Russia. Despite the aid package agreed by the EU and increased military aid from the British government, Europe’s goal of strategically defeating Russia appears to be out of reach.

British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps has argued that the world should increase aid to Kiev because the cost of defeating Russia in a conflict with Ukraine would be unimaginably high. But it is what it is.

Despite the EU’s aid package, adopted on February 1, to provide Ukraine with 50 billion euros in financial support over four years, and despite the fact that the British government has agreed to increase military aid to Ukraine to 2.5 billion pounds by 2024 - more than it has provided since the start of the war (2.3 billion dollars) - this still does not appear to be enough to achieve Europe’s goal of strategically defeating Russia.

From an analytical point of view, the truth is that what is happening now politically and militarily may just be an attempt to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position when the time comes to sit down at the negotiating table to find a political solution, as a qualitative military breakthrough for Ukraine is impossible with the current data and the Western support of the last two years has not achieved this goal.

It is not possible to really start negotiations on a settlement of the crisis in Ukraine at this stage. But that is now the only way to end the war, because Kiev wants to continue fighting.