Between Scylla and Charybdis: Out of Ukraine into Gaza

In recent weeks, my attention has been captivated by a slew of media reports delving into the intricacies of European-American discourse surrounding a potential resolution to the Ukrainian quagmire. While official negotiations have yet to be declared, the inevitability of such diplomatic efforts is apparent. As history has shown, all conflicts, no matter their protracted nature, eventually find their denouement at the negotiating table.
The trajectory towards this resolution was set into motion even before the eruption of the Gaza crisis. However, the escalation of this crisis has inadvertently propelled a renewed focus on seeking a political settlement in Ukraine. This shift in attention is motivated by various factors, chief among them being the strategic diversion of international attention from Ukraine. This diversion has provided the Western powers a strategic moment to recalibrate their position, unburdened by the weight of prior commitments and promises made to Ukraine. It has also presented a golden opportunity to craft a fresh strategic vision that can resonate with the public sentiment in these countries.
Another impetus for seeking a political settlement in Ukraine stems from the mounting frustration over the challenges in fulfilling promises and commitments made to the country. This frustration has reached its zenith, particularly in some European quarters. Additionally, divisions within the US Congress on the scale of military and financial support for Ukraine, exacerbated by new responsibilities related to substantial financial and military aid to Israel, further complicate matters. Anticipated Israeli claims for compensation, both economically and in terms of weaponry, to ensure its security, add another layer of complexity.
The third consideration revolves around the military stalemate in Ukraine. No significant breakthroughs are occurring on the battlefield, with both Ukrainian and Russian forces making negligible progress. The situation has devolved into intermittent skirmishes. The target bank for the Russian side is depleting. Operational challenges are impeding the advance of the Ukrainian army. The front line has remained stagnant for nearly a year, with the Ukrainian counteroffensive losing momentum since last June. This untenable status quo, I believe, is pushing for a resolution due to the heavy toll on Ukraine and the strain on Western budgets.
The fourth consideration is the eruption of the Gaza war. The West fears its escalation and potential involvement of other regional actors, a plausible scenario that cannot be dismissed. Consequently, there is a pressing need to cool down the Ukrainian front, foreseeing the possibility of the US and its allies entering a new military conflict if Israel faces a substantial external threat. Moreover, the Gaza conflict has drawn attention to the strategic dilemma faced by the US and its allies in maintaining global influence amidst ongoing geostrategic shifts.
Currently, discussions are reportedly underway quietly between the Europeans and the Americans, aiming to crystallize a common formula facilitating compromises in Ukraine. GOP Senator Tommy Tuberville characterizes this as a “great time” for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, citing the imperative for a resolution. Conversely, Russia maintains an official stance, expressing openness to a diplomatic solution and readiness to entertain genuinely serious proposals. The negotiation’s focal point is likely to be the territory Russia relinquishes or the terms of a deal that preserves the dignity of both the West and Ukraine – a nuanced formula of neither absolute victory nor defeat.
This negotiation point, especially Russia’s potential resistance to Ukraine’s NATO membership, might be among the critical aspects. The alliance, having already expanded eastward, with new members like Finland officially joining last April, and Sweden poised for accession following agreements on Turkey’s reservations.
Beyond media leaks, there are official political signals that demand attention. French President Emmanuel Macron recently acknowledged the potential for fair negotiations with Russia to resolve the Ukraine issue. Though he suggests the moment has yet to arrive, it appears Macron is paving the way for an imminent move. Such statements are strategically aimed at lowering expectations.
Ukrainian President Zelensky’s unwavering insistence on the withdrawal of Russian forces before negotiations remains a pivotal point. This stance will undoubtedly be subject to strenuous Western deliberations with Kyiv to find a viable solution and set the stage for potential negotiations with Russia.
While Gaza may provide a lifeline for conflicting parties in Ukraine to exit while saving face, the looming question is: who will extend a lifeline to Gaza itself, given its uncertain fate? This is a question that demands collaborative efforts from all regional and international stakeholders to answer.