Libya, Iraq and Lebanon: different symptoms, same train wreck

Most predictions indicate that a solution to the crisis in Libya is unlikely anytime soon. Recent clashes are driving back the military conflict in the country.

This Arab country has become a model of collapse beyond the idea of a failed state after the “Libyan state” broke into two rival camps, two rival governments and elites that cannot find a way out of the predicament their people have found themselves in over the past few years. The situation in Iraq may be different on the surface from the tragedy in Libya. But it leads down the same path.

The political debate has turned into clashes and a raging crisis between the supporters of the Sadrist movement and the Coordination Framework. Words like insurgency, great danger and preparation for the worst are being bandied about everywhere in Iraq. The institution of the Iraqi state has fallen victim to a political conflict that has crossed all national boundaries.

The common denominator between the Libyan and Iraqi crises is the conflict over elections and ballot boxes, whether those elections take place, as in the Iraqi case, or whether they do not take place at all, as in the Libyan case. All the scenarios for organizing elections that were planned for the middle of last year have foundered.

I had said that after the massive withdrawal of Sadrist Movement deputies from the Iraqi Council of Representatives, the political stalemate is likely to worsen; the coming political scenarios are open to all possibilities.

I have also said that there are no guarantees if new elections are held or the obstacles preventing them are overcome, they will bring the stability that Iraq, Libya, Lebanon and other countries need.

We affirm that Iraq, Libya, and Lebanon are countries that are at immediate risk in the fluidity and chaos of the world order; it is dangerous to hold these three countries hostage to internal tensions, many of which are the result of dictation from outside that only serves to maintain the influence of regional actors.

The Iraqi predicament is similar in its symptoms and consequences to the Lebanese dilemma, and it parallels it in terms of origin and cause. The Iranian factor is strongly present in both cases. The difference is the divisions within the Shiite establishment.

But this too is not unrelated to the influence of Tehran and its associates. The situation in Libya is not far from that and the result is clear to all.

There is no hope that these crises will improve in a short period of time because of the inability of international organizations to perform their duties and because most countries are worried about the internal crises they are experiencing as a result of the war in Ukraine.

The result of this bitter Arab reality is, as we keep emphasizing, that the problem of some of our countries is not democracy and ballot boxes. These mechanisms, long called for by many, have become part of the problem, not the solution. This is not a call to sway from the consultation processes, nor is it a call to authoritarianism, as some may hastily jump to such conclusions.

But my point is that the crisis in these countries is deeper than the mechanisms designed to create favorable conditions, and we see that hateful sectarianism and confessionalism prevent people from going to the polls in some cases, and that transnational interests and loyalties prevent the formation of governments that reflect the will of society in others.

We note that those who invoke the ballot box do not accept its results. We note a deadlock that is the result of a unilateral culture that believes in democracy only when it advances its interests and goals, and rejects it when the results are incompatible with those interests.

Democracy needs democrats who believe in sovereignty, appreciate the value of the homeland and the need to protect it from any outside interference. Civilized political practices are not limited to candidate lists and ballot boxes, but are genuine beliefs rooted in society’s right to choose who represents it.

In the total absence of these convictions, what is happening seems absurd, whether it is the catastrophic conflict in Iraq, the takeover by militias in Sanaa, or the dissonance of the two governments vying for power in Tripoli and Benghazi. And then there is the Lebanese scene, which thrums with all tones of political absurdity.