New alliances and visions for the world ahead

During the last few months, analysts and experts have been delving into post-Covid-19 conditions around the world. Opinions and analyses have varied on the structures and models of leadership in the global system that have taken shape after the crisis. In fact, we are far from saying that the world has turned the page from the coronavirus turmoil.

Its implications for the international relations are still shaping up. But meetings of the UN General Assembly gave a chance to unpack some of the perceptions reflected in the language and speeches of heads of state.

China remains cautious when it comes to talking about the issue of global leadership. But it also strives to present its strategic vision, especially on economic issues. In his speech, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged the world to say no to “unilateralism” and “protectionism.” The WTO, he added, will remain the cornerstone of world trade.

For Beijing, globalization must be maintained at least in its economic sense. China also seems to be a strong defender of its position in the face of US President Donald Trump’s accusations of spreading the virus.

Its UN envoy Zhang Jun accused the US of spreading a “political virus” before the UN General Assembly. “The US noise is incompatible with the general atmosphere of the General Assembly.” Trump, he said, was “abusing the platform of the UN to provoke confrontation and create division.”

China has “providing active assistance to many countries, including the US” to help “save lives.” But “the situation in the US remains unabated,” due to “complete failure” to save lives in a country “with the most advanced medical technologies and system in the world.” The Chinese delegate concluded his statement with some advice to US decision-makers. “To be great, you have to behave like a leader.”

This was not the only debate about the impact of the post-coronavirus. French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a diplomatic but diametrically opposed message to his American ally when he told the UN that France, Germany and Britain “will not compromise” on their refusal to support the reinstatement of UN sanctions against Iran after the US took the initiative to do so.

The French president said that “the world as it is today cannot be reduced to rivalry between China and the US,” calling on the global collective to “build new alliances.” “We are not collectively condemned to a pas de deux that would somehow reduce us to being just the desolate spectators of a collective impotence.” “The collapse of our frameworks of cooperation [...] imposes on Europe to take its full share of responsibility,” he said.

The words and visions may seem a bit redundant, at least for specialists and researchers. Perhaps these speeches carry the dreams and aspirations of a world political current dreaming of multipolarity or a world without unipolar hegemony or bipolar conflicts.

But reading between the lines, this is only the tip of an iceberg that is still taking shape in the post-Coronavirus world. This is especially true of the links between the US and Europe. The EU suffers from deep cracks due to divergent visions and strategic interests.

It is hard to say that NATO is capable of resisting and rallying partners around the same goal or even reaching a consensus. On the contrary, it has become difficult to talk about the challenges and similarities among alliance members. Marked differences between some of its members point to possible military confrontation, as in the case between Turkey and Greece backed by France. Moreover, the US has gradually disengaged itself from the obligations and responsibilities of NATO members.

The new alliances to which President Macron is referring are by no means military alliances. Rather, they are alliances of interest stemming from the concerns of European companies that received help from China at the height of the coronavirus crisis, while the American ally was completely absent from the scene of support and assistance.

The reason is not only the scale and effects of the pandemic on Americans. It is also the unilateralism that currently dominates American diplomacy. All these strategic visions and perceptions continue to interact and come into shape as circumstances and changes occur.

It also depends on the outcome of the US presidential election next November. The victory of President Donald Trump for a second presidential term will fuel this tendency.

Conversely, a Democrat victory could lead to revisions of all expectations of America’s allies and competitors, depending on the changes that will inevitably occur in the American diplomatic approach if the blue candidate makes it to the White House.