English Opinion

The Gulf region and the war in Ukraine

Salem Alketbi


It is inevitable that the war in Ukraine will have an impact on many regions and sectors in the world. In addition to the strategic impact of the crisis, there are equally important consequences such as the increase in energy and food prices.

Many countries, especially in the Middle East and Africa, are concerned about food supplies such as wheat and corn and are following events in Ukraine with concern. In the context of the outbreak of military conflict in Ukraine, many questions have been raised about the impact of this crisis on GCC countries.

In this context, the GCC countries have deep strategic interests with Russia on one side and the West, especially the US, on the other, and it cannot be said that they can take a position in favor of one side or the other. Moreover, international relations today are based on mutual interests rather than alliances or disputes.

They are also characterized by visible structural changes and profound upheavals that are difficult to overlook, making it difficult to build positions that may impose more costs than benefits. The strategy of diversifying partnerships and building balanced relationships with all international powers began in the UAE several years ago.

There is a strategic partnership that links the state with the three major powers that are trying to “reshape” the rules of the world order - China, Russia and the US. The UAE’s views and position on this crisis are naturally in line with its foreign policy, linked to its interests and strong relations with all parties.

It is a vision of sustainable development that does not result from temporary calculations or passing crises. The UAE has even recently expressed its intention to purchase Chinese L-15 Falcon fighter jets to diversify its defense sources and enhance the operational capabilities of the UAE Armed Forces without jeopardizing the close partnership between the UAE and the US.

The GCC states see no need to even verbally discuss a military alliance because they have major interests and investments in Russia, the US, and Ukraine and generally pursue development goals. The economy, investment, and common interests with all countries in the world come first.

This was made clear in a document of the 50 principles that sets the direction of the UAE at least for the near future. I think this is also reflected in the policies of many other Middle Eastern countries as well as the GCC countries. In addition, US allies, like Israel, are more concerned about their very close relations with the US than with Russia.

It cannot be denied that the situation is delicate for the Gulf region in the context of the Ukraine crisis. Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producer in OPEC and the UAE is the region’s third largest crude oil exporter. Qatar has the largest natural gas reserves and has been repeatedly proposed in Europe as an alternative to bridge disruptions in Russian gas supplies.

Accordingly, positions and policies in this respect are delicate. No one wants to participate in polarization and international conflicts in this as well as in other crises. The entire world order is in upheaval and is being organized according to new rules, scales and balances.

It is in the interest of the middle and small powers to stay out of the strategic impulses at least until the smoke clears and, as far as possible, to remain in the gray zone. Developing strategies and making decisions in such a complex international strategic environment is never an easy task. It requires an enormous amount of information, analysis, judgment, reason and wisdom.

Betting on hasty actions or scenarios without proper calculation can lead to colossal losses. The attitude of the GCC states to the Ukraine crisis must be understood in this sense. However, it is more important to focus on what will happen.

Even though the hypothesis of direct military intervention by NATO has been relatively averted, the further course of the crisis is still completely uncertain. However, the actions of other regional and international powers and the impact on crisis management in other parts of the world, as in the case of the Middle East, must be taken into account.

In the face of a sudden scenario, coordination appears essential to protect the security and stability of regional powers, including Israel. Some may exploit the current instability and chaos in international relations to introduce new disruptions into the regional landscape.

It is inevitable that the war in Ukraine will have an impact on many regions and sectors in the world. In addition to the strategic impact of the crisis, there are equally important consequences such as the increase in energy and food prices.

Many countries, especially in the Middle East and Africa, are concerned about food supplies such as wheat and corn and are following events in Ukraine with concern. In the context of the outbreak of military conflict in Ukraine, many questions have been raised about the impact of this crisis on GCC countries.

In this context, the GCC countries have deep strategic interests with Russia on one side and the West, especially the US, on the other, and it cannot be said that they can take a position in favor of one side or the other. Moreover, international relations today are based on mutual interests rather than alliances or disputes.

They are also characterized by visible structural changes and profound upheavals that are difficult to overlook, making it difficult to build positions that may impose more costs than benefits. The strategy of diversifying partnerships and building balanced relationships with all international powers began in the UAE several years ago.

There is a strategic partnership that links the state with the three major powers that are trying to “reshape” the rules of the world order - China, Russia and the US. The UAE’s views and position on this crisis are naturally in line with its foreign policy, linked to its interests and strong relations with all parties.

It is a vision of sustainable development that does not result from temporary calculations or passing crises. The UAE has even recently expressed its intention to purchase Chinese L-15 Falcon fighter jets to diversify its defense sources and enhance the operational capabilities of the UAE Armed Forces without jeopardizing the close partnership between the UAE and the US.

The GCC states see no need to even verbally discuss a military alliance because they have major interests and investments in Russia, the US, and Ukraine and generally pursue development goals. The economy, investment, and common interests with all countries in the world come first.

This was made clear in a document of the 50 principles that sets the direction of the UAE at least for the near future. I think this is also reflected in the policies of many other Middle Eastern countries as well as the GCC countries. In addition, US allies, like Israel, are more concerned about their very close relations with the US than with Russia.

It cannot be denied that the situation is delicate for the Gulf region in the context of the Ukraine crisis. Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producer in OPEC and the UAE is the region’s third largest crude oil exporter. Qatar has the largest natural gas reserves and has been repeatedly proposed in Europe as an alternative to bridge disruptions in Russian gas supplies.

Accordingly, positions and policies in this respect are delicate. No one wants to participate in polarization and international conflicts in this as well as in other crises. The entire world order is in upheaval and is being organized according to new rules, scales and balances.

It is in the interest of the middle and small powers to stay out of the strategic impulses at least until the smoke clears and, as far as possible, to remain in the gray zone. Developing strategies and making decisions in such a complex international strategic environment is never an easy task. It requires an enormous amount of information, analysis, judgment, reason and wisdom.

Betting on hasty actions or scenarios without proper calculation can lead to colossal losses. The attitude of the GCC states to the Ukraine crisis must be understood in this sense. However, it is more important to focus on what will happen.

Even though the hypothesis of direct military intervention by NATO has been relatively averted, the further course of the crisis is still completely uncertain. However, the actions of other regional and international powers and the impact on crisis management in other parts of the world, as in the case of the Middle East, must be taken into account.

In the face of a sudden scenario, coordination appears essential to protect the security and stability of regional powers, including Israel. Some may exploit the current instability and chaos in international relations to introduce new disruptions into the regional landscape.